Landslide Deformation Prediction by Analysis ofMultivariate Non-stationary Time Series

LI Fei-ao; LUO Wen-qiang; LIU Xiao-shan; HUANG Li

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.04.0072014, 31(04):31-34

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4) : 31-34. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.04.0072014, 31(04):31-34

ENGINEERING SAFETY AND DISASTER PREVENTION

Landslide Deformation Prediction by Analysis ofMultivariate Non-stationary Time Series

LI Fei-ao, LUO Wen-qiang, LIU Xiao-shan, HUANG Li

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Abstract

At present, time series model for landslide deformation prediction has been univariate model which failed to take the inducing factors of landslide displacement into account. To establish multivariate time series model is necessary. An error correction model (ECM) for landslide deformation trend prediction was established by using multivariate non-stationary time series to comprehensively analyze the landslide’s inducing factors and dynamic displacement changes. The monitoring point ZG93 of Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area was taken as an example to calculate the prediction errors. Results showed that except for several points, the prediction errors are all controlled in the range of ±2.3%.

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landslide / multivariate non-stationary time series / ECM / deformation prediction

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LI Fei-ao, LUO Wen-qiang, LIU Xiao-shan, HUANG Li. Landslide Deformation Prediction by Analysis ofMultivariate Non-stationary Time Series[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2014, 31(4): 31-34 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.04.0072014, 31(04):31-34

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